!!! Achtung Englisch !!! Nette Erklärung zum Hitcap

[Razlathak]

How Mr. Robot Feels about Hit Caps

Posted on November 4, 2012 by Zoopercat / Vee Tegen


You’re probably here because you saw Mr. Robot’s new added feature: using an ‘at least’ condition to get to hit caps. Before you check the box to force hit caps, he’s hoping he can change your mind ONE LAST TIME!

Getting exactly to the hit cap doesn’t do anything magical for you. It means you will never miss, but that comes at a cost. It means you give up another stat, like crit, haste or mastery. Mr. Robot asks you: would you rather miss ONCE per boss fight, if you could crit more often… resulting in more DPS?

Here are some stats on missing

Let’s assume you get out 630 attacks on an average boss fight. Mr. Robot gets people to within 0.05% to 0.1% of the hit cap. But let’s say he drops you as low a 0.25% under the hit cap (14.75% for casters and 7.25% for other classes). You have the following chances to miss:
■A 20% chance to NEVER miss during the boss fight
■A 32.5% chance to miss ONLY ONCE during the boss fight
■A 1.6% chance to miss FIVE times during the boss fight
■A 0.0005% chance to miss TEN time (yes, the 0′s and decimal are right)

Let’s put this into perspective. This means that if you are 0.25% under the hit cap, you have about a 50% chance to never miss or only miss once. So on average, every other boss that you fight, you’ll only miss once, or never at all.

Now Mr. Robot wants to ask, “Do you want to take your 50% chance, and add some damage to it?”

If Mr. Robot can work out the numbers on his own, he might put you slightly under the cap, but he’ll give you more haste, crit, strength, int, or whatever stat your heart desires. This will allow you to hit harder, better, faster, stronger… on every single hit! And you get all of this for a tiny chance to miss more than once, on every other fight.

Worried you’ll miss that one crucial shot, and the raid will wipe?

Don’t worry, you actually have a better chance of getting hit by lightning (really, you do). You have a 1 in 10,000 chance to get struck in your lifetime, assuming you live to 80. Really, the source is a .gov url, and they don’t lie, right?

Now, the chance that you’ll miss an attack at an exact given moment is about 1 in 200,000. Here’s how to calculate that number:
■With a 0.25% chance to miss, you miss 1 out of 435 hits.
■In a 450 second fight, you are worried you’ll miss at the exact second it matters. That’s a 1:450 chance.
■Multiply those together: 435 * 450 and you get 195,750.
■So you have a 1 in 195,750 chance to miss at the exact wrong moment

I don’t know about you, but I don’t think I’ll be fighting any given boss enough times to miss at that exact moment. In fact, if you had a 25 man raid, every single week since vanilla, THEN you might have had ONE wipe from missing at the exact wrong moment. Let’s look at some fight stats, and assume that every boss has that major point where you don’t want to miss at the exact wrong moment. Again, this is assuming you’re 0.25% under the hit cap, but Mr. Robot gets the majority of people to within 0.05 – 0.1% of the hit cap.
■If you killed 10 bosses a week, and took 3 attempts to kill the boss each week, that’s 1,560 fights a year.
■If you’ve been doing this since Vanilla, that would be 10,920 fights.
■If you had 25 man raids each of those times, and every single DPSer has a mechanic for every single boss where they REALLY didn’t want to miss or they’d wipe… that would be 218,400 opportunities where a miss could have happened and wiped the raid.
■Since you have a 1 in 195,750 chance to miss at the exact wrong moment, it’s very possible that with 218,400 trials, one miss at the exact wrong moment occurred.

But if Hit’s stat weight is higher than my next stat, why would it ever make sense to not be hit capped?

Mr. Robot wants to get you the highest score (which translates into the highest DPS for damagers, damage mitigation for tanks, etc). It’s easy to agree that any hit rating over the cap is wasted. But what isn’t as obvious is that getting exactly to the hit cap isn’t always the best option.

Let’s use an example to understand this better. Let’s say +Hit is your highest weighted stat with a weight of 2. Let’s say Crit has a rating of 1.8 and Mastery 1.2. The thing to focus on in this example is that Crit is much more valuable than Mastery, AND there are a finite number of combinations to get you to an exact number. On to the example: it’s possible that to get you exactly to the hit cap, you’d have to reforge all of your Crit to Hit. BUT!!! Let’s say you can get to within 20 Hit rating of the cap but you preserve all of your Crit, and instead reforge all of your mastery – since Mastery is much less valuable than Crit. Your final score would be higher. Here are some made up numbers as an example:

To get exactly hit capped:
Lose 600 Crit: -1080
Gain 600 Hit (get exactly to cap): +1200
Total Score change: +120

To get within 20 of hit cap:
Lose 580 Mastery: -696
Gain 580 Hit (20 below hit cap): +1160
Total Score change: +464

Ready to give in yet?

Mr. Robot hopes so, because if you do NOT check the box to force the hit cap, he’s free to get you other awesome stats, like crit, haste, or whatever blows your dress up. He wants you to be a dps MACHINE!

But, if you really need to get that hit cap, he’ll let you check that box. But, he also suggests that you be very careful of lightning and wear rubber soled shoes and hat at all times.